Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.