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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”