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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.